Australia's country towns 2050: what will a climate adapted settlement pattern look like?

Abstract This report considers the impact of anticipated climate change on Australia’s inland towns and centres to the year 2050. It examines the ways in which non-coastal settlements will be affected by the primary, secondary and tertiary impacts of climate change, including the impact of extreme climate events, a warming and drying climate over much of southern Australia and increased costs associated with both structural economic change and accelerated degradation of infrastructure. The research finds that climate change is likely to have a wide range of impacts on Australia’s system of inland settlement and that not all of these impacts are likely to be adverse. The published literature highlights the fact that some industries – including wool production, grains, viticulture and some grazing – are likely to benefit from climate change. While this is not the case in all instances, the fact that some industries will be enhanced runs contrary to both commonly held expectations and public discourse. In other sectors of the economy and society, technological change and/or investment in infrastructure will overcome many of the climate-change related challenges that have the potential to place the wellbeing of inland centres at risk. This project found that rural and regional centres across Australia will be affected by climate change in different ways, depending upon: Their industry structure; Their geographic location, especially their degree of remoteness; Their climatic conditions now and in the year 2030; and, The resource endowments of communities – and especially their stock of human, social, physical, fiscal and economic capital. The project reviewed the national and international literature on climate change adaptation to consider the vulnerability of individual inland centres. A vulnerability index was developed that was able to distinguish places that are more, and less, vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. This analysis was undertaken as a first step toward better understanding the differential impacts of climate change on the inland settlement system, and with a full awareness of the critiques of such approaches. The modelling highlighted that places that are remote confront some of the greatest risks from climate change, and that many – but not all – Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable. Detailed field work was undertaken in five case studies across Australia – Alice Springs, NT; Junee, NSW; Horsham, Victoria; Waikerie, South Australia; Moura, Queensland – in order to understand the steps taken by inland centres to plan and prepare for climate change. The research found that many persons within rural and regional communities do not accept that human-induced climate change is a reality, and that in consequence preparations for change are patchy. However, in many rural economies contemporary ‘good practice’ in farming or grazing is entirely consistent with the measures needed to plan for climate change. The fieldwork also highlighted the fact that while it is possible to model the potential impact of climate change, such measures overlook the commitment and willingness of groups to address this challenge. Finally, we conclude that climate change will contribute to the shifting nature of Australia’s inland settlement system to the year 2050 but that it will be just one of a number of factors contributing to change. Other factors, including global markets, demographic change, the relative prosperity of individual industries, and the investment decisions of government will be important also. Please cite this report as: Beer, A, Tually, S, Kroehn, M, Martin, J, Gerritsen, R, Taylor, M, Graymore, M, and Law, J, 2013, Australia’s country towns 2050: What will a climate adapted settlement pattern look like? National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp.139.Abstract This report considers the impact of anticipated climate change on Australia’s inland towns and centres to the year 2050. It examines the ways in which non-coastal settlements will be affected by the primary, secondary and tertiary impacts of climate change, including the impact of extreme climate events, a warming and drying climate over much of southern Australia and increased costs associated with both structural economic change and accelerated degradation of infrastructure. The research finds that climate change is likely to have a wide range of impacts on Australia’s system of inland settlement and that not all of these impacts are likely to be adverse. The published literature highlights the fact that some industries – including wool production, grains, viticulture and some grazing – are likely to benefit from climate change. While this is not the case in all instances, the fact that some industries will be enhanced runs contrary to both commonly held expectations and public discourse. In other sectors of the economy and society, technological change and/or investment in infrastructure will overcome many of the climate-change related challenges that have the potential to place the wellbeing of inland centres at risk. This project found that rural and regional centres across Australia will be affected by climate change in different ways, depending upon: Their industry structure; Their geographic location, especially their degree of remoteness; Their climatic conditions now and in the year 2030; and, The resource endowments of communities – and especially their stock of human, social, physical, fiscal and economic capital. The project reviewed the national and international literature on climate change adaptation to consider the vulnerability of individual inland centres. A vulnerability index was developed that was able to distinguish places that are more, and less, vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. This analysis was undertaken as a first step toward better understanding the differential impacts of climate change on the inland settlement system, and with a full awareness of the critiques of such approaches. The modelling highlighted that places that are remote confront some of the greatest risks from climate change, and that many – but not all – Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable. Detailed field work was undertaken in five case studies across Australia – Alice Springs, NT; Junee, NSW; Horsham, Victoria; Waikerie, South Australia; Moura, Queensland – in order to understand the steps taken by inland centres to plan and prepare for climate change. The research found that many persons within rural and regional communities do not accept that human-induced climate change is a reality, and that in consequence preparations for change are patchy. However, in many rural economies contemporary ‘good practice’ in farming or grazing is entirely consistent with the measures needed to plan for climate change. The fieldwork also highlighted the fact that while it is possible to model the potential impact of climate change, such measures overlook the commitment and willingness of groups to address this challenge. Finally, we conclude that climate change will contribute to the shifting nature of Australia’s inland settlement system to the year 2050 but that it will be just one of a number of factors contributing to change. Other factors, including global markets, demographic change, the relative prosperity of individual industries, and the investment decisions of government will be important also

Housing: mirrror and mould for Australian society

This paper makes use of the 2006 and two previous Censuses in order to present a snapshot of the evolution of Australian housing and highlight the changes in the way Australians consume housing. In particular, this essay pays attention to the ways in which housing reflects broader societal change while at the same time moulding the future of our nation. There is a focus on the degree of fit between the housing stock and the changing Australian households, including developments in family formation, the number of persons living in each home, the ageing of the population and the different outcomes confronting men and women in the housing market. Along the way the essay also considers issues of housing affordability and the processes through which the current housing affordability ‘crisis’ is shaping both the ways in which we live as a nation and the type of society we are becoming. This is the third in a series of essays based on data from the 2006 Census, produced in cooperation with the Australian Bureau of Statistic

Multinational lessons from local and regional economic development agencies

This paper discusses the commonalities and differences in local and regional economic development (LRED) across England, Northern Ireland, Australia and the US. The focus is on four themes: the institutional characteristics of the respondents; governance, partners and partnerships; the objectives, regional capacity building and business service activities of responding agencies; and the self-assessment of effectiveness by LRED organisations. Our analysis is based on a survey of LRED agencies in the above-noted countries using a common questionnaire that was slightly adapted for each study area. Using logistic regression, we identify the practices and strategies of local and regional economic development agencies that are associated with higher levels of effectiveness. When all participating nations’ LRED organisations are jointly evaluated, several practices emerge as being positively related to agency performance including being actively involved in industrial estates, labour training and recruitment, marketing the agency’s region to international markets, and promoting industry clusters. Also showing as being positively related to performance are variables identifying whether or not the agency subsidized relocation costs for new businesses, helps local companies access venture capital, engages in education and training programs targeted at youths, and enhances networking opportunities for local business people. Interestingly, we found statistically significant negative relationships between agency effectiveness and engaging in tourism promotion activities, training minority groups, and conducting target industry studies, though this may reflect a correlation between certain activities and problematic economic environments. Though our research methodology of relying on self-assessed performance measures does not allow us to draw sweeping conclusions, we are confident that these findings provide a beginning for identifying a set of best practices that are appropriate for LRED organisations in a multinational setting.

Place leadership and regional economic development: a framework for cross-regional analysis

This paper examines the leadership of places – cities, regions, communities – in Australia, Finland, Germany, Italy, the United States and the United Kingdom and explores the capacity of vignettes to generate new, theoretical and empirical insights. It uses vignettes to identify the features of place leadership evident in 12 case studies across six nations. The research finds significant commonalities in place leadership with respect to the importance attached to boundary spanning, the role of government officials in responding to the prospect of regional decline or growth and how the nature of the challenge confronting a locality determines the adequacy of the response

A Policy Impact Evaluation Model For Scotland: Decoupling Single Farm Payments

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of decoupling single farm payments in Scotland. It focuses on aggregate impacts on the agricultural products in domestic and external markets and the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector as well as an aggregate impact on the Scottish GDP. In order to capture system-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Scotland. The simulation results suggest that the Scottish agricultural sector may encounter declines in output and factor us as a result of the policy reform. However, this critically depends on two factors: (a) the price effect of the policy reform on Scottish agricultural products relative to the EU average as well as the conditions of changes in world agricultural market prices; and (b) the extent to which customers would be sensitive to price effects of the policy reform. As far as the spill-over effect to the non-agricultural sector is concerned, decoupling of direct payments seems to have a positive spill-over effect. Similarly, the aggregate GDP effect is positive under all simulation scenarios. Critically, the simulation experiments indicate that policy shock may have a symmetrical outcome across the two sectors, with contractions in agriculture being accompanied by expansions in the non-agricultural sector, mainly because of factor market interactions between the two sectors.

Owner occupation and profit : the creation and capture of value through Canberra's residential property market

This study examines the material advantages attached to owner occupation in Canberra between 1962 and 1981. Canberra's housing market was used to review the debate on domestic property and land rent A number of authors (Saunders, 1978, 1979; Pratt 1982) contend that ownership of residential property generates significant economic interests independent of production within society. Other researchers rejected this view and denied the significance of gains through housing (Edel, 1982; Edel, Sclar and Lamia, 1984). One of the first objectives of this thesis therefore was to ascertain the nature, size and origins of any benefits accrued through the ownership of housing. The history of property ownership in nine suburbs was examined and the benefits associated with property ownership calculated. The study found that home purchasers in Canberra with bank finance were typically $32,000 better-off once their dwelling was sold. The level of benefits received varied according to socio-economic status. The largest gains were accrued by the owners of the most expensive dwellings. The rats of return on the household's capital, however, was not influenced by factors associated with social class or prestige. Market conditions determined the rate of return with the greatest percentage gains to households which purchased while the market was low and sold during a boom. The receipt of benefits through housing reflected the history of real property within societies with a British legal heritage, Canberra's special development history and Australia's post-War housing system. It was concluded that explanations of housing-related benefits must recognise that land is property like any other. The commodity nature of housing \s a function of the the importance of production and the conditions associated with the production of wealth in society. In addition, the market's role in the capture of benefits through housing must be accepted. Price fluctuations determine the nature and size of any gains collected